COT Silver Report
Neutral
No clear directional alignment detected.
Dominant Actor: Swap Dealers
Assessment: Dealer Risk Addition
Tactical Framing: Bearish Rejection regime. Value resistance approx. 69.51.
Risk State
Price is repairing within the existing value range.
-
Value repair without forced exits:
(84–91) ✔ Still admissible
(core: 86–89, ±2)
-
Forced liquidation of trapped inventory:
() ✖ Not applicable in current regime
-
Structural repricing / regime change:
(66–67) ✖ Not admissible. Boundary breach implies regime transition
Risk & Regime Context
- Risk Profile: No clear bullish structure at this time.
- Trend Quality: The move is supported by new capital entering the market.
- Position Saturation: Speculative positioning is balanced.
- Commercial Behavior: Commercials maintain net long exposure.
- Trajectory: Market is stabilizing after a downward value repricing.
- Price Efficiency: Price is moving disproportionately relative to positioning.
- Volatility Regime: Price movement is directional, reflecting one-sided flow.
⚠️ Invalidation Watch
- post_cutoff_value_rejected
Price Action
Weekly impulse (POC reference in red)
- Current Week (2026-03-10 to 2026-03-17): ▼ -10.64%
- Previous Week (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-10): ▲ +6.33%
- Pre-cutoff POC (2026-03-10 → 2026-03-17): 81.34
- Post-cutoff POC (2026-03-17 → 2026-03-20 15:00 ET): 69.51
- Friday 3PM price (2026-03-20 15:00 ET): ▼ 68.35
- Friday vs Post-cutoff POC: -1.16 pts (▼ -1.67%)
COT Positioning & Participation
- Open Interest — 154,886 (▼ -3,779 WoW)
- Share of OI: Managed Money long 8.2% vs Swaps short 28.5%
- Concentration: Largest 8-or-less held 42.2% of shorts
- ▼ -0.5% net short concentration
- Managed Money — 12,631 long / 3,330 short → +9,301 net (8.2% of OI)
- Net reduced by 420 contracts
- Participation ▲ 3 trader/s
- Open Interest Long %: ▼ -0.1% | Short %: ▼ 0.0% | Spreading %: ▲ +0.9%
- Swap Dealers — 21,736 long / 44,108 short → -22,372 net (28.5% of OI)
- Net increased by 2,329 contracts
- Participation ▼ -1 trader/s
- Open Interest Short %: ▼ -1.1% | Spreading %: ▲ +0.4%
- Producer / Merchant — 5,407 long / 20,290 short → -14,883 net
- Net increased by 1,266 contracts
- Participation ▲ 1 trader/s
- Open Interest Long %: ▲ +0.4% | Short %: ▼ -0.2%
- Other Reportables — 17,400 long / 5,665 short → +11,735 net
- Participation ▼ 0 trader/s
- Total participants — 164
- ▼ 0 from 164
COT Interpretation
- Price impulse decelerated versus prior week.
- Speculative positioning remains elevated relative to market size, despite recent de-risking.
- Post-cutoff trading established acceptance significantly below prior COT inventory, indicating downward value repricing.
- Friday trade rejected post-cutoff accepted value.
- Price declined with limited speculative participation.
Built at 2026-03-20T22:05:38Z